Dubai House Prices Historical Data Analysis¶
Introduction¶
This analysis provides the historical squared feet prices of houses in Dubai from 2003 to present. The data is collected from bis.org which is a publicly available source.
The analysis shows the nominal house prices and using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the real house prices are calculated. The analysis also shows the annual percentage change in the house prices.
Lastly, the analysis shows the 10-year investment returns based on the squared feet prices of houses both in nominal and real terms.
1. AED/SQFT Prices In Nominal Terms¶
This section shows the historical prices and the monthly percentage change distribution of the house prices in Dubai in nominal terms.
2. 10-Year Investment Risk¶
This section makes a statistical analysis of the yearly returns to find the 10-year investment risk with 95% confidence.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Real yearly mean | 0.07 |
| Real yearly std | 0.16 |
| Estimated mean yearly return | 0.058 |
| 95% yearly return range | -0.07 | 0.21 |
| 95% yearly return std range | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| 95% 10yr total return range | 0.25 | 1.35 |
| Yearly CAGR - 95% | 0.031 |
3. CPI¶
This part shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its monthly change distribution.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Real yearly CPI mean | 0.014 |
| Real yearly CPI std | 0.020 |
| Estimated yearly inflation mean | 0.016 |
| 95% yearly inflation range | -0.01 | 0.05 |
| Estimated cumulative 10yr inflation mean | 0.178 |
| 95% cumulative 10yr inflation range | 0.10 | 0.25 |
3.1 Exploring Monthly Inflation Change¶
3. Inflation Adjusted Real Prices¶
4.1 10-Year Investment Risk - In Real Terms¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 95% 10yr total return range after inflation | 0.07 | 1.17 |
| Yearly CAGR - 95% after inflation | 0.016 |